Smartphone gross sales progress will drop to single digits in 2016, says Gartner
Analyst Gartner is anticipating an enormous drop in smartphone gross sales progress, projecting the market will shrink from 14.four per cent progress in 2015 to only 7 per cent in 2016 — with just one.5 billion smartphone models being shipped globally this yr.
The excessive watermark for smartphone gross sales was again in 2010, when Gartner notes the market grew seventy three per cent.
The indicators of a slowdown within the international smartphone market have been clear for greater than a yr, with mature Western markets saturated and China’s progress engine additionally slowing as demand has topped out. Incentives for shoppers to improve their units yearly have additionally softened, with Gartner noting that new units supply solely incremental upgrades over present hardware and carriers have been shifting away from subsidizing upgrades.
In rising markets it says the typical lifetime of premium telephone is between 2.2 and a couple of.5 years, whereas primary mobiles have a mean lifetime of three years and up.
Gartner sees the most important remaining alternative for smartphone progress in India, noting that gross sales of function telephones — aka dumbphones — accounted for a majority (sixty one per cent) of complete cellular gadget gross sales final yr, leaving loads of scope for upgrades as smartphones proceed to grow to be extra reasonably priced.
It is estimating 139 million smartphones will probably be bought in India this yr, rising 29.5 per cent yr-over-yr. It notes the typical promoting worth of mobiles within the nation stays under $70, and it expects smartphones priced beneath $one hundred twenty to proceed to contribute round half of general smartphones gross sales there this yr. So little to cheer Apple there, when it comes to progress alternative for premium priced units, however probably excellent news for various smartphone OS maker Jolla which final yr inked a cope with Indian OEM Intex to get units operating its Sailfish platform into the market.
The primary Sailfish system for India, the Intex Aqua Fish, is priced under $one hundred twenty and as a consequence of arrive this yr, though its launch has been delayed — and final month was being slated as arriving “within the coming months”.
Turning to China, the story final yr was flat smartphone gross sales, and Gartner is anticipating “little progress” within the area within the subsequent 5 years — couching it as a “saturated but extremely aggressive” market — and noting that gross sales of smartphones represented ninety five per cent of complete cell phones gross sales final yr. So dangerous information for formidable homegrown participant Xiaomi, which has been gunning for top progress simply because the native market is saturating. Final month it signed a cope with Microsoft on patents — paving the best way to hunt elusive smartphone progress abroad.
Gartner does say it sees alternative for “non-conventional” distributors in China, projecting that by 2018 at the very least one such telephone maker will probably be among the many prime 5 smartphone manufacturers within the nation. “Chinese language web corporations are more and more investing in cellular gadget hardware improvement, platforms and distribution as they purpose to develop their consumer bases and improve consumer loyalty and engagement,” notes Gartner analyst Annette Zimmerman in a press release.
The Sub-Saharan African area can also be couched as a gorgeous area for smartphone distributors, with smartphone gross sales solely overtaking cell phones gross sales there for the primary time final yr. Nokia model licensee and newly shaped smartphone OEM HMD will need to take word, given it has paid for the best to construct featurephones (and smartphones) bearing the beforehand iconic Nokia model identify.